🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Daegu FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Daegu FC 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.37 xG and Daegu FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Daegu FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.38, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 45% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 27%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights