Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Daegu FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daejeon Citizen stand at 3W 0D 1L from 4 K League 1 matches — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Daegu FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 2.25 PPG, Daegu FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 1 for Daegu FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 50% and Daegu FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Daejeon Citizen 75% | Daegu FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Daegu FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.054 / defence 1.055 | Daegu FC attack 0.861 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.291. Data: 13 Daejeon Citizen games / 46 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 36% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Daegu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 36% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.22 / Daegu FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.054 / def 1.055 | Daegu FC attack 0.861 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Daegu FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.28
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.39
1.17
Daegu FC xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.17 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Daegu FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 2.25 PPG, Daegu FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 2.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC in 100%.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
Daegu FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Daejeon Citizen or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 6, Daegu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Daejeon Citizen at 50%, Daegu FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Daejeon Citizen and 75% for Daegu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 100% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 75% of Daegu FC's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Daegu FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 13/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 36% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 75%, Daegu FC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 2.25 PPG, Daegu FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.