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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.60 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 42% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights