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Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights