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Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Daegu FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-3 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 27% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 58%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights