Daegu FC 3-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 August 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 46% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 42% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.17 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.878 / defence 0.934 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.940 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.150. Data: 59 Daegu FC games / 26 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Daegu FC 1.17 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.878 / def 0.934 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.940 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 16 August 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.43
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.18
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.01 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 5W 9D 12L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 13W 7D 6L from 26 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 5D 3L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 13W 7D 6L in their last 26 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.15 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 46%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Daegu FC) and 38% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%; Daegu FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 46% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Daegu FC's recent games and 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.17 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 42%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.