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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Daegu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.41 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.54 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 34% | Draw 26% | Pohang Steelers 40%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 59%, Pohang Steelers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights