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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 2-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Jeju United FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Jeju United FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 36%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 59%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 0.91 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights