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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, as Daegu FC and Gwangju FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gwangju FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.27 against Gwangju FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 39%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights