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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daegu FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, as Daegu FC and Gangwon FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.03 xG and Gangwon FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Gangwon FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.76, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 34% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 61%, Gangwon FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gangwon FC arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights