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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.99 xG and FC Seoul 0.74 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against FC Seoul attack 0.66 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 27%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights