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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.48 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.05 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.27 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 39% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 34%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights