Daegu FC 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at DGB Daegu Bank Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daegu FC 0.90 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 48% versus Daejeon Citizen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.49 xG and Daejeon Citizen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.860 / defence 0.942 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.882 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.121. Data: 57 Daegu FC games / 57 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 24%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Daejeon Citizen 4.17. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Daegu FC 1.49 / Daejeon Citizen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.860 / def 0.942 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.882 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Daejeon Citizen xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 50% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (5 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.81
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.42
0.93
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.93 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 22D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.15 PPG from 62 outings (16W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.23 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 10W 13D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (4W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 18W 22D 22L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 16W 23D 23L in their last 62 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daegu FC
2
Draws
6
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 47%, Daejeon Citizen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Daegu FC's games and 67% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 25, as Daegu FC and Daejeon Citizen drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.49 xG and Daejeon Citizen 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 24%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 40%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.