Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bucheon FC 1995's home record at Bucheon Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bucheon FC 1995) versus 1.20 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bucheon FC 1995, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 41% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bucheon FC 1995 41% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.98 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.829 / defence 1.329 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.350. Data: 27 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 60 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bucheon FC 1995 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.98 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.829 / def 1.329 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.766 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 23% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
23%
4.33
35%
2.88
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.35
1.37
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
4.33
23%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.12
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.37 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (5W 16D 8L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.17 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bucheon FC 1995's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 62%.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 16D 8L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 1.00 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 33% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 40% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.