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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant NEOM run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Damac 3-0 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.17 xG and Damac 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEOM beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.67 / defence 1.28 against Damac attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 32% | Draw 29% | Damac 39%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 65%, Damac 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Damac's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights