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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEOM and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 26, as NEOM and Al Taawon drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.95 xG and Al Taawon 1.57 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NEOM beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 22% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 51%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 52%, Al Taawon 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights