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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEOM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat NEOM 1-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 45%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEOM 2.25 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights