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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEOM edge out Al Najma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Al Najma 2-1 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.56 xG and Al Najma 1.19 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Al Najma attack 0.68 / defence 1.29, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 44% | Draw 30% | Al Najma 27%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 56%, Al Najma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

Al Najma's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights