🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out NEOM 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat NEOM 1-2 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.20 xG and Al Kholood 1.73 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Al Kholood attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 26% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 49%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 52%, Al Kholood 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights