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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEOM and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 1-1 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.27 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.91 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 25% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 60%, Al Khaleej Saihat 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEOM 1.80 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights