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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEOM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat NEOM 1-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.39 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEOM 23% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 60%, Al-Ittihad FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEOM's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEOM 1.70 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights