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Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Damac 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.35 xG and NEOM 1.02 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NEOM outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against NEOM attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Damac 44% | Draw 27% | NEOM 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 0%, NEOM 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with NEOM winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Damac shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEOM scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.