🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al Taawon 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.78 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.66 / defence 0.86 against Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 24% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 45%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Damac winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights