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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Damac 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.98 xG and Al Shabab 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.74 / defence 0.85 against Al Shabab attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 36% | Draw 34% | Al Shabab 30%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 49%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights