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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Damac run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al Riyadh 3-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.33 xG and Al Riyadh 1.00 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 43% | Draw 30% | Al Riyadh 27%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 0.88 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights