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Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Raed 1.82 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Al-Raed attack 1.19 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 37% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 41%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Raed's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights