Damac 1-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Damac welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's home record at Dhamak Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Damac's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Damac register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Damac have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.885 / defence 1.182 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.127 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.310. Data: 58 Damac games / 24 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Damac 1.27 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.885 / def 1.182 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.127 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Damac 1 - 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 28% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.89) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
28%
3.57
23%
4.26
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Damac xG
Total xG
3.02
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.45
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Damac and 1.75 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 6D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (16W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Damac's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.92 points per game from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.54 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 3D 5L in their last 24 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Damac 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 67%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Damac and 58% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Damac's games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Damac's matches and 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Damac and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Damac winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.