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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Damac 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Orubah beat Damac 1-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.80 xG and Al Orubah 0.88 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Orubah outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Al Orubah attack 0.58 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 62%, Al Orubah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Orubah's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 1.14 PPG, Al Orubah 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights