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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Damac 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.12 xG and Al-Nassr 1.70 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Al-Nassr attack 1.27 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 47%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights