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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Damac 0-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.44 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 0.80 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 47% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 26%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 49%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 0.97 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights