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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Damac win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Damac winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights