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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 2-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.14 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.73 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights