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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Damac and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.63 xG and Al-Hazm 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights