🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Damac run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fayha 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 0.92 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights