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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Damac and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Fateh 1.50 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.36, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 33%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 55%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 0.92 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights