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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 35%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 54%, Al-Ettifaq 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights