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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 0-3 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.33 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Damac 37% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Damac's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Damac 1.23 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights