Damac 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 17 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Damac, 0.80 for Al Baten — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al Baten 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al Baten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.61 xG and Al Baten 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.853 / defence 1.014 | Al Baten attack 0.739 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.325. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Damac games / 50 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 52% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 23%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Al Baten 4.35. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al Baten 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 52% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Damac 1.61 / Al Baten 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.853 / def 1.014 | Al Baten attack 0.739 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Damac (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Baten xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Baten kick off?
Damac vs Al Baten kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Baten?
Damac 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Damac vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Baten part of?
Damac vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 52% chance of winning, Al Baten a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Damac and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 2 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Baten in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.74x) against Damac's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.96
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Damac xG
Total xG
2.60
0.99
Al Baten xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
21.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Damac and 0.99 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 15D 17L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.84 PPG from 50 outings (10W 12D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.48 points per game from 25 outings (2W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.90 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 18W 15D 17L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 10W 12D 28L in their last 50 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Baten away?
Damac's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.56 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Damac 1-0 Al Baten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al Baten 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Damac) and 48% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Baten in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 40% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Damac's recent games and 48% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Baten tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Baten 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.61 xG and Al Baten 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Baten landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Al Baten attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 52% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 23%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Baten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.