🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Damac at 40%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 26 September 2025 at 16:40 UTC.

Form

Damac (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Damac's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ettifaq are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Damac 2W, Al-Ettifaq 4W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 54% | Al-Ettifaq 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.850 / defence 1.086 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.955 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.387. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Damac games / 37 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 35%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights