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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Wehda Club.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al Wehda Club 1-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Shabab 1.95 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Al Shabab attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 30% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 48%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights