Al Wehda Club vs Al Okhdood – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Wehda Club 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.44 xG and Al Okhdood 1.53 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Al Okhdood attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 36% | Draw 24% | Al Okhdood 40%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al Okhdood 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.98 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights