Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 1W 4D 5L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 0.80 (Al Khaleej Saihat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 61% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al Khaleej Saihat 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.012 / defence 1.204 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.842 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.336. Data: 41 Al Wehda Club games / 41 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.51 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.012 / def 1.204 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.842 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 24 October 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 3 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 41% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wehda Club 2W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.01) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.02
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.87
1.35
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
7%
13.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.35 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 9D 21L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 11W 11D 19L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.02 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 7W 4D 9L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.95 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.20 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2023, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 70%, Al Khaleej Saihat 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al Wehda Club) and 35% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wehda Club's games and 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 35% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Wehda Club 1-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.35 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 41% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al Khaleej Saihat 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.02 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.