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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Al Wehda Club and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.60 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.68 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.54 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 22% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights