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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.98 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.06 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.93 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 62%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 64%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.96 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights