Al Taee 1-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al-Adalah meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's home record at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Adalah have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al Taee's 1.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Adalah 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.150 / defence 0.928 | Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.372. Data: 31 Al Taee games / 1 Al-Adalah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Adalah 3.57. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taee as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Taee 1.48 / Al-Adalah 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.150 / def 0.928 | Al-Adalah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Adalah xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 46% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Adalah in?
Al Taee (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taee's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al-Adalah's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.85x) against Al Taee's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.84
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
Al-Adalah xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.08 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Adalah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taee by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taee have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Adalah in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Taee
1
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2023, when Al-Adalah 2-2 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Adalah?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Taee's recent matches and 0% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Taee's matches and 100% of Al-Adalah's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Al-Adalah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Adalah 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.48 xG and Al-Adalah 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Adalah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Al-Adalah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Adalah 28%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 100%, Al-Adalah 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taee arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taee managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Adalah conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.