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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon and NEOM finished level at 1-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.47 xG and NEOM 1.62 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.44 / defence 0.98 against NEOM attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | NEOM 24%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 75%, NEOM 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights