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Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wehda Club beat Al Taawon 0-2 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.99 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 44% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 27%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Wehda Club 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Al Wehda Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights