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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 2-0 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.62 xG and Al Shabab 0.80 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Al Shabab attack 0.63 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 57% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 18%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Shabab's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.59 PPG, Al Shabab 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights