🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Taawon and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.25 xG and Al Shabab 1.16 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Al Shabab attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 38% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 34%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.59 PPG, Al Shabab 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights