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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon and Al Riyadh finished level at 1-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.01 xG and Al Riyadh 1.41 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Al Riyadh attack 0.90 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 51% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 26%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 44%, Al Riyadh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights